54 | September 2025 | www.industrialoutlook.in
G A
UEST RTICLE
Mr. Ramesh Shivanna
Director
Sadbahvana Ventures Pvt. Ltd.
A Decade of Explosive Growth
India’s solar manufacturing journey
has been nothing short of remark-
able:
• Solar PV Modules: From just 2.3
GW in 2014 to a landmark 100 GW
enlisted under ALMM (2025).
• Solar Cells: Present capacity at 25
GW, with MNRE targeting 90 GW
expansion under ALMM.
• Ingot & Wafer: Still nascent, at
~2 GW, leaving India dependent on
imports.
Schemes like PLI, state incentives,
VGF,
PM-KUSUM,
and
PM
Suryaghar
Rooftop
have
built
momentum. With 119 GW already
installed and a target of 250 GW by
2030, India has become a frontrun-
ner in global renewable energy.
Mega-projects like Pavagada (2 GW
+ 1 GW planned) and Bhadla (2.2
GW) symbolize this ambition.
The Cost Shock: Domestic vs.
Global Pricing
But growth comes with volatility:
• Domestic cell shortage has pushed
prices to ₹14-16/Wp, while Chinese
cells sell for ₹4/Wp.
• With ALMM List-II enforcement
from June 2026, reliance on local
cells will raise module prices,
temporarily increasing project tar-
iffs by 40–50 paise/kWh.
• Result? Short-term slowdown in
capacity additions, as EPC players
hesitate amid higher costs.
Trade Wars & “Solar National-
ism”
India’s manufacturing ambitions
now face a global headwind.
U.S. Trade Actions
• Anti-dumping & CVD investiga-
tions: Dumping margins alleged up
to 214%; preliminary rate set at
123.04% (Aug 2025).
• Flat 50% tariff on Indian mod-
ules & cells (effective Aug 28,
2025).
• Reality check: India exported 2.3
GW to the U.S. in 2024, its largest
export market. Overnight, competi-
tiveness has collapsed.
INDIA’S SOLAR MANUFACTURING CROSSROADS:
GROWTH, VOLATILITY, AND THE GLOBAL TRADE STORM