80 | September 2025 | www.industrialoutlook.in
R EPORT
INTEGRATING TO DIFFERENTIATE:
A SOLAR MODULE EQUATION
India's mature module ecosystem
now sufficient to meet domestic
needs, but will evaporating export
opportunities cause oversupply in
the medium term?
Owing to a concerted governmental
push through PLI and ALMM
schemes and a favourable global
environment, module makers have
greatly expanded their capacities in
the past 2 years to the ~100 GW
mark. This addition has been
absorbed with alacrity as solar
additions rose 60% y/y in FY25 to
~24 GW, necessitating a demand for
~50 GWdc of modules. Additions
are set to hover ~40-50 GW in the
coming years to achieve targets,
needing a steady state capacity of
100 GW of modules. Hence, the
~190 GW expected to be installed
by 2027 could contribute to an over-
supply considering reduced scope
for exports due to actions by the US
in removing incentives for solar
projects. Players who want to take
advantage of the lucrative market
would look to set up onshore facili-
ties, with a distinct advantage for
early movers as the US market is
also building up indigenous
up-
stream capacity.
Cell capacities to exponentially rise
in the medium term as launch of
ALMM-II provides a shot in the
arm.
Contrasting the maturity in mod-
ules, cell capacity in India at under
30 GW remains insufficient. This is
where the introduction of ALMM-II
for cells is a boon. The order man-
dates use of only cells from enlisted
makers for projects for which bid
submission is after 31 Aug'25.
Additionally, only ALMM cells and
modules may be used for projects
benefitting from net metering or
open access rules, a move which
will open up the significant C&I
market to domestic players. Planned
capacity additions promise to take
up cell capacity to close to self-suf-
ficiency in the medium term. In the
interim, the higher price for DCR
cells this could push up the cost of
projects till the supply-demand dy-
namics re-adjust, potentially reduc-
ing bid enthusiasm. The clarity
provided on the timelines which
exempts ~100 GW of projects bid
out from Dec'24 onwards will give
time for this readjustment to occur,
preventing undue price spikes.