81 | September 2025 | www.industrialoutlook.in
R EPORT
Wafer and polysilicon capacities are
some years away; careful evaluation
needed on degree of integration
desired.
Further up the value chain, presence
of domestic players remains negli-
gible, with China ruling the roost.
The target to achieve nearly 40 GW
wafer capacity by Mar'27 is admira-
ble, but on ground movements to
meet the lofty target seems moder-
ate. The order clarifying that the use
of only blue wafers will qualify
cells to be classified as domestic
provides a fillip, but more needs to
be done. The Chinese action to shut
down nearly a third of its polysili-
con capacity makes the case stron-
ger for more domestic facilities,
though no capacity exists presently.
Spiking polysilicon prices squeeze
the margins of global players as
most are only integrated from wa-
fer-module.
In recent weeks, polysilicon prices
have spiked by 35-40%, with only a
portion trickling down to wafers
and cells. Module prices remain
unmoved. This indicates that the
margins of mid- and down-stream
players is getting eaten up. This
trend means that most global
players (with Tongwei being a
notable
exception)
have
seem
EBITDA margins plummet due to
their
integration
only
from
wafer-module stage. In this context,
India's PLI which provides incen-
tive for integration from polysilicon
to module is unique since most
global players are integrated from
wafer-module only, leaving them
exposed to fluctuations in polysili-
con prices.
Indian players have outperformed
global players on returns due to
favourable domestic and global
regulations.
The margin and growth profile of
Indian companies remains meaning-
fully superior to that of internation-
al counterparts. Domestic Integrat-
ed manufacturers are likely to
remain better placed over the
medium term, given their ability to
manage input costs and benefit from
tight cell supply demand conditions.
In contrast, standalone module
makers may see more variability in
returns, prompting many players to
diversify into adjacencies such as
inverters, IPPs, and battery storage.
While current policy support and
surging renewable demand provide
a 'golden period,' the longer-term
question is whether industry dy-
namics eventually resemble those of
the steel sector where returns are
cyclical and heavily policy-influ-
enced. I